Ok, based off the suggestion by fitchfan28 and the classic diary by Cristitunity, I have put together a list of the district of the districts that moved the most from Kerry to Obama and of the ones that moved the most from Bush to McCain based off of the official 2004 results and SSP’s 2008 Crowdsurfing results.
I say tentative because I still need post-2005-redistricting #s for Georgia and post-2006 ruling on League of Latin American Voters v. Perry redistricting #s for Texas. Also, if anyone sees any problems with these numbers, please point them out.
So, without further ado:
| Ranking | District | Representative | Obama Vote | Kerry Vote | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HI-01 | Neal Abercrombie | 70.43% | 52.72% | 17.71% |
| 2 | HI-02 | Mazie Hirono | 73.14% | 55.98% | 17.16% |
| 3 | IN-04 | Steve Buyer | 43.01% | 30.11% | 12.90% |
| 4 | IN-07 | Andre Carson | 70.89% | 58.35% | 12.54% |
| 5 | IN-05 | Dan Burton | 40.24% | 28.15% | 12.09% |
| 6 | NE-02 | Lee Terry | 49.97% | 38.46% | 11.51% |
| 7 | CA-47 | Loretta Sanchez | 60.14% | 48.66% | 11.48% |
| 8 | IL-08 | Melissa Bean | 55.74% | 44.27% | 11.47% |
| 9 | IN-03 | Mark Souder | 42.84% | 31.45% | 11.39% |
| 10 | IL-14 | Bill Foster | 54.83% | 43.87% | 10.96% |
| 11 | IN-06 | Mike Pence | 46.18% | 35.29% | 10.89% |
| 12 | IN-02 | Joe Donnelly | 54.10% | 43.23% | 10.87% |
| 13 | GA-13 | David Scott | 70.85% | 60% | 10.85% |
| 14 | TX-15 | Ruben Hinojosa | 59.82% | 49% | 10.82% |
| 15 | TX-28 | Henry Cueller | 55.93% | 46% | 9.93% |
| 16 | CA-18 | Dennis Cardoza | 59.24% | 49.36% | 9.88% |
| 17 | CA-43 | Joe Baca | 67.96% | 58.19% | 9.77% |
| 18 | CA-51 | Bob Filner | 63.11% | 53.35% | 9.76% |
| 19 | PA-16 | Joe Pitts | 47.74% | 38.05% | 9.69% |
| 20 | IN-08 | Brad Ellsworth | 47.42% | 37.76% | 9.66% |
| 21 | CA-44 | Ken Calvert | 49.51% | 39.92% | 9.59% |
| 22 | CA-25 | Buck McKeon | 49.45% | 39.90% | 9.55% |
| 23 | TX-24 | Kenny Marchant | 44.37% | 34.90% | 9.47% |
| 24 | IL-13 | Judy Biggert | 54.21% | 44.76% | 9.45% |
| 25 | IL-06 | Peter Roskam | 55.91% | 46.60% | 9.31% |
| 25 | TX-16 | Silvestre Reyes | 65.81% | 56.50% | 9.31% |
| 27 | DE-AL | Mike Castle | 62.63% | 53.35% | 9.28% |
| 27 | VA-03 | Bobby Scott | 75.52% | 66.24% | 9.28% |
| 27 | GA-07 | John Linder | 39.28% | 30% | 9.28% |
| 30 | ND-AL | Earl Pomeroy | 44.62% | 35.50% | 9.12% |
Lots of big movement here. A few of the biggest trends seem to be
1. Indiana & Hawaii. ’nuff said.
2. A lot of Hispanic-heavy districts that Bush won or did fairly well in bounced back as McCain’s support collapsed among this once swing demographic.
3. Not as many Illinois districts are here as I would have expected, though the movement in suburban and exburban Chicago is impressive.
4. Biggest WTF: PA-18. Seriously, what’s happening here?
You’ll notice that like I said, the numbers for GA-07, GA-13, TX-15, & TX-28 are tentative. GA-07 and TX-15 appear to be on the list no matter what, but if one or both of the others end up falling off, #31 is WI-08 with a 8.99% shift and #32 is NM-01 with a 8.98% shift.
Moving on to districts where McCain built on Bush:
| Ranking | District | Representative | McCain Vote | Bush ’04 Vote | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AR-01 | Marion Berry | 58.69% | 51.66% | 7.03% |
| 2 | AR-04 | Mike Ross | 58.14% | 51.36% | 6.78% |
| 3 | KY-05 | Hal Rogers | 67.01% | 60.52% | 6.49% |
| 4 | OK-02 | Dan Boren | 65.59% | 59.38% | 6.21% |
| 5 | TN-04 | Lincoln Davis | 64.06% | 58.02% | 6.04% |
| 6 | AL-04 | Robert Aderholt | 76.32% | 71.25% | 5.07% |
| 7 | LA-07 | Charles Boustany | 63.14% | 59.72% |
3.42% |
| 8 | LA-03 | Charlie Melancon | 60.99% | 57.72% | 3.27% |
| 9 | TN-08 | John Tanner | 56.01% | 52.76% | 3.25% |
| 10 | MA-09 | Stephen Lynch | 38.50% | 35.75% | 2.75% |
| 11 | AR-02 | Vic Snyder | 53.98% | 51.44% | 2.54% |
| 12 | WV-03 | Nick Rahall | 55.76% | 53.21% | 2.55% |
| 13 | LA-01 | Steve Scalise | 72.72% | 70.52% | 2.20% |
| 14 | TN-06 | Bart Gordon | 61.87% | 59.71% | 2.16% |
| 15 | AR-03 | John Boozman | 64.16% | 62.27% | 1.89% |
| 16 | TN-01 | Phil Roe | 69.77% | 67.91% | +1.86% |
| 17 | TX-08 | Kevin Brady | 73.76% | 72.47% | 1.29% |
| 18 | MA-04 | Barney Frank | 34.67% | 33.48% | 1.19% |
| 19 | AL-05 | Parker Griffith | 60.91% | 59.74% | 1.17% |
| 20 | OK-03 | Frank Lucas | 72.82% | 71.71% | 1.11% |
…it’s all a little sad, isn’t it?
The trends here seem pretty obvious, that that infamous stretch of land from West Virginia down to Louisiana and Alabama and over into Oklahoma and rural west Texas where Obama collapsed made up almost all of McCain’s gains. A few minor corrections from the native son effect of John Kerry in MA round out the rest of McCain’s gains.
Just in case you were wondering, district #21? None other than the only Kerry-McCain district in the country, PA-12.
Thanks Nico. Glad I could inspire a great diary like this. Haha
I’d be concerned about the Arkansas and Tennessee districts except that local Democrats are still very good at holding those types of seats, and in the case of Arkansas their bench is non-existant.
As for PA-16, Joe Pitts has the most interesting district in Pennsylvania this year in that out of all the parts of the state that shifted heavily to Obama (turning Kerry’s narrow win into a 10-point blowout), his was the biggest shift. I was surprised by how well we improved in that region.
In the GA and TX districts on your list, the 2004 numbers already reflect the redistricting in both states (at least they correspond exactly to the numbers in the Almanac of American Politics, who say that their numbers reflect the new district lines)
So you can take the “tentative” qualifier away — you’ve got it right numbers already.
I’m sure this is a VRA protected district but could we peel off some of this district to the 2nd and 4th districts to make them a little better for us? Maybe AA population growth would justify the 4th at least being more black (it’s already 33 percent black right now). I know we saw a law change in this regard but perhaps something could be arranged if we can retain the governor’s mansion and make some gains in the state legislature.